Duke Blue Devils offensive lineman Graham Barton (62) Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Data suggests Steelers shouldn't overthink first-round pick in NFL Draft

By Aaron Becker | Last updated 4/24/24

The Steelers currently own the No. 20 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and could use it in several ways, with needs at center, wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback.

However, ESPN content producer Paul Hembekides calculated the percentage of first-round picks that have "hit" or "missed" based on whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The results prove Pittsburgh should not overthink its decision.

In 20 drafts from 2000-19, the position with the highest "hit" rate is center. A total of 12 centers have been drafted in the first round, and only one has not re-signed a second contract with the team that drafted him.

That equals about a 92 percent success rate, which is the best. The second-best position is offensive tackle with 38 hitting out of 64 draftees (59 percent success rate).

ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.

The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates: pic.twitter.com/mSannLz6OC
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2024

The data is difficult to argue against for the Steelers. It's no secret that their biggest need is at center, having not added one since releasing 2023 starter Mason Cole earlier this offseason.

Some may believe that pick No. 20 would be a reach for the position, but there is a clear dropoff after Duke's Graham Barton, Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnson and West Virginia's Zach Frazier.

Head coach Mike Tomlin clearly agrees following his assessment of the draft class last month.

According to The Athletic's Mark Kaboly, Tomlin said, "After a couple centers in the draft, it will likely not be plug-and-play."

Well, Pittsburgh needs a plug-and-play center without one on its current roster. If the team doesn't want to risk losing out on all three, using its first-round selection on the position should be the move.

The Steelers won't be on the clock again until pick No. 51 in the second round, barring a trade-up. So, although center might not be the flashiest pick at No. 20, it may be a necessary one and maybe even the smartest.

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